Even without trusting government-controlled election figures over the years, turnout has steadily decreased in Iran. The rulers of the Islamic Republic cannot deny the statistics from their own Ministry of Interior.

This decrease in participation has numerous economic, political, and social causes. Chief among them are livelihood difficulties, declining purchasing power, and increasing poverty and unemployment, which leave most Iranians with little incentive to vote. The current state of the country affects over 90% of the population, contributing to a broader social context for this decline in voter turnout.

Schism between the Islamic government and the people

Over the last fifteen years, particularly after the 2009 crackdown on the Green Movement and the "Where Is My Vote?" protests, the masses have distanced themselves from the government in large numbers. This growing divide is evident in the differing lifestyles of the people compared to their rulers, the process of de-ideologization, the increasing belief in the separation of religion and state, the rising use of non-governmental media, and the sexual revolution in society. The government's plan to engineer people's lives based on its Islamist ideology through the education system and by reducing culture, art, sports, and media to government propaganda has failed.

National memory exists

According to government officials, Iranians quickly forget repressions. Hassan Rouhani's advisor, Hesamoddin Ashna, once remarked, "Our sweet people are hard to conquer but easy to reconcile." Similarly, the Minister of Communications under the Raisi administration dismissed complaints about the killings of thousands of protesters in 2017, 2019, and 2022 as mere grumblings, urging people to forget them and vote. Mohammad Reza Aref, Khatami's former VP, also advised not to "tie Iran's future to hatred of the past" to encourage voter turnout.

Contrary to these expectations, Iranian society neither wants to nor can forget the recent repressions. The motto of those who have lost loved ones or been injured, shared by the majority, is "we do not forgive, and we do not forget." As a result, calls from reformists to forget have largely been ignored. The Iranian people are developing a strong political memory and cannot simply move on. It's unrealistic to think they will reconcile with the system just because Pezeshkian is brought into the picture.

Change of reference groups

In the past decades, intellectuals, clerics, and academics were considered influential reference groups in Iran, with a significant portion of the population following their guidance. However, this changed in 2017. Despite opposition from these groups that year, people rose against the regime in more than 100 cities and small towns. Since then, three other groups have gained more influence on society: the families of slain protesters, political prisoners, and union and civic groups. In the 2024 elections, these three groups effectively boycotted the elections, and their boycott had a significant impact.

While celebrities, public figures loyal to the regime, and former and current officials turned some main polling stations in Tehran into social gatherings on June 28, portraying themselves as elites on voting day, the people advised by the new reference groups stayed at home. Government agents often accompany foreign journalists to these central polling stations to create an impression of higher turnout. Consequently, domestic and foreign journalists obtained most of their photos and reports from these locations.

Non-participation has no gender, class, or ethnicity

The non-participation or boycott by the majority of voters, officially reported at 60% last week, cannot be attributed solely to the abstention of women, ethnic groups (Kurds, Baluchs, Arabs), and the poor. This widespread decision to abstain and show resentment towards the government is a cross-class, cross-gender, and cross-ethnic phenomenon. The majority of Iranians do not see a light at the end of tunnel for their future if the Islamist government remains in place.

The participation of Kurds and Baluchis has decreased similarly to others, and the deprived classes have distanced themselves from the ballot boxes in the same manner as the prosperous classes. "No Vote at All" was a national campaign.