Israelis are bracing for Iran’s retaliatory attack as various sources, including US intelligence, say a coordinated operation by Iran and its allied armed groups looks “increasingly likely” in the next few days.
Almost two weeks have passed since Iran vowed a ‘harsh’ and ‘severe’ response to the assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran. Multiple outlets have speculated about the timing and the nature of the Iranian attack, quoting anonymous sources in Iran, Israel or US. Most have proven to be inaccurate, but seem to be converging on a ‘response’ before the end of the week.
“[The attack] could happen as soon as this week,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday, reiterating the US position of calling for de-escalation.
In Israel, however, few seem to be optimistic about the chances of the American message being heard in Tehran. The Israeli military is said to be "at peak readiness in attack and defense," amid reports that Iran has undertaken “significant preparatory actions”, resembling what it did in April when dozens of missiles and kamikaze drones were launched towards Israel.
On Monday, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said his country was watching developments in Iran. “We have very broad attack plans, and are highly prepared for execution" he added. Israeli armed forces are on high alert but no change has been made to public precautionary guidelines as of Monday evening local time.
While most intelligence and military assessments have raised the likelihood of an attack, governments and diplomats are still pushing hard to dissuade Iran from going forward with its plans, or at least “limiting” the scope of the retaliation.
A Washington Post report Monday suggested that such a ‘best case’ scenario may not be as far-fetched as some feared. “We were told [by Iran] that it’s going to be a limited response,” because Tehran “doesn’t want to expand the war," an Iraqi MP close to Iran-backed militants was quoted in the report. The post also claimed that in “private meetings” Iranian representatives have called for caution and a “balance” between show of force and the danger of a full-blown war in the region.
It is expected that Iran’s allied armed groups (the Axis of Resistance) would be involved in the retaliatory operation, with those in Iraq and Syria reportedly planning to target US bases in those countries.
Those groups seem to feel obligated after multiple leaders and commanders, including Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr, were killed in Israeli attacks in the past two weeks. “We are confident that Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah will respond to Israel's actions,” said the Palestinian Islamic Jihad's envoy to Tehran on Monday. He added that Israel’s actions "deserves a decisive response.”
Some Middle East observers have suggested that the ‘response’ could be mitigated by Iran’s stated willingness to avoid an all-out war and the potentially severe consequences that it may bring.
On Monday, leaders of Britain, France and Germany urged Iran to hold back its retaliation plans, reminding Iranian rulers of the repercussions of such an attack for the country beyond. “We call on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardize the opportunity to agree a cease-fire and the release of hostages.”
