Iranian authorities and state media describe the Arbaeen Walk to religious sites in Iraq, which saw the participation of over 3.6 million Iranians this year, as a demonstration of “Shia soft power.”
In an article entitled “Shia Soft Power in the Light of Arbaeen Diplomacy” last week, Defa Press, the news agency of Iran’s Armed Forces, argued that the annual millions-strong gathering of Shia in Iraq serves as an “effective tool to bolster the soft power of these [Shia] communities against the cultural and social assaults from regional and extra-regional enemies.”
“In my view, Arbaeen goes beyond a religious ceremony and plays a crucial role in public and cultural diplomacy,” the author stated. “This event allows Shia communities worldwide to forge stronger communication and cultural networks, ultimately reinforcing their collective identity and enhancing their soft power in the face of foreign threats,” the author argued.
Iran's clerical regime holds various events to discuss and promote the idea. Last week, the International Culture Convergence Institute, Tehran University’s Theology Faculty, and a think tank called Zharfa held a webinar called “Arbaeen, Manifestation of Soft Power in Global Equations,” in which figures from several countries, including Pakistan, Iraq, and Lebanon, participated.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has on many occasions referred to the Arbaeen Walk as a manifestation of Shia power and a “great and astonishing combat rehearsal”. Some pundits believe Khamenei recognized the political potential of the event as an alternative to the pilgrimage to Mecca (hajj) where the Shia are only a minority.
The Arbaeen ceremony, which marks the end of the 40-day mourning period following Ashura—the religious ritual commemorating the death of the third Shia Imam, Hussain ibn Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, in 680 AD—is the world's largest annual gathering.
Some Shias have traditionally gathered every year to mark Arbaeen in Karbala, Iraq, where the Imam is buried. Many walk long distances, even hundreds of kilometers, to the shrine of Imam Hussein and other Shia shrines providing ample opportunities for Iranian propaganda among other pilgrims during the ceremonies.
Participation in the ceremonies held in Iraq has hugely grown over the past decade thanks to Iranian government's propaganda, and huge expenditures on infrastructures such as roads, healthcare for pilgrims, and security.
Small numbers of Shia Iranians had always privately taken the pilgrimage in the years following the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. The number of pilgrims grew from 40,000 in 2010, when it was first recorded, to three million in 2019, then hugely dropped during the pandemic.
In 2022, three million traveled to Iraq, and the number grew to four million in 2023. However, this year, according to the Arbaeen Central Headquarters, over 3.6 million Iranians participated in the walk. This was almost a million and a half less than officials’ forecasts.
Pundits suggest the decline may be attributed to the extreme summer heat or the fading novelty of the pilgrimage for those who have already participated once or even several times.
The current year’s budget included allocations of 1.24 trillion rials (around $2m) to several government bodies including the Ministry of Interior, Arbaeen Central Headquarters, and Islamic Propaganda Organization to “provide infrastructure and support” to hold the walk. However, this was in reality a tiny fraction of what the government spent. By some estimates, up to $500 million was spent.
Government organizations and state-affiliated charities as well as municipalities and city councils often allocate considerable budgets to organize the Arbaeen Walk as well and offer various services, including free Wi-Fi, along the way and in Karbala to hold the event as “gloriously” as possible.
The new government continued to support the event. The very first action that Vice-President Mohammadreza Aref took after his appointment was ordering 4 trillion rials (around $650,000) to be paid for the prevention of unforeseen incidents, contagious diseases, and other similar health-related issues among pilgrims.
Several newly appointed officials, including Farzaneh Sadegh-Malvajerd, rushed to the border area to inspect the infrastructure and services offered to pilgrims.