Iranian officials have been promoting last year's $5 billion in foreign investment as a success despite sanctions. However, this amount pales in comparison to the much larger sums being attracted by neighboring countries.
The Chairman of the Iranian and Foreign Joint Investment Association, Hossein Salimi, in an interview with ILNA admitted that Iran's energy crisis could be the final nail in the coffin for its already anemic foreign investment prospects. According to Salimi, the ongoing shortfall in energy production and consumption is so severe that it may deter foreign investors more than any other issue.
$5 Billion: A contrast to regional success stories
Iran’s much-publicized $5 billion in foreign investment last year is dwarfed by the figures coming out of neighboring countries. For example, the UAE attracted $22.5 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2022, and Saudi Arabia, riding the wave of Vision 2030, secured around $21 billion the same year. These numbers are several times higher than Iran’s, highlighting how far the Islamic Republic has fallen behind its regional rivals in the race to attract global capital.
While Iranian officials like Salimi say that the $5 billion investment is a small victory, the reality is that it’s hardly enough to compensate for the country's systemic mismanagement, outdated infrastructure, and the suffocating impact of international sanctions. In comparison, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, free from such constraints, have built an investor-friendly environment supported by stable energy supplies, global trade relationships, and consistent economic reforms.
Energy crisis: A ticking time bomb
Salimi’s comments underscore a critical point: even if foreign companies wanted to invest in Iran, they would face challenges due to the country’s dysfunctional energy sector. Years of underinvestment, combined with poor management, have left Iran with a 14,000-megawatt electricity deficit. As a result, the country is struggling to meet even its current consumption, let alone the additional energy needs of foreign industrial investors.
Salimi’s warning points to a reality: "If tens or hundreds of foreign industrial companies come to Iran... will we be able to provide the necessary water, electricity, and gas for these industries?" The answer, it seems, is no. Any influx of foreign business would likely run into the same problems that Iranian citizens already face—frequent blackouts, water shortages, and limited access to energy resources.
The problems run deeper than just energy shortages. Salimi’s reminder of energy giant Total's departure from Iran is emblematic of how the country’s geopolitical entanglements have stunted its growth. In 2018, after the US reimposed sanctions, Total, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, pulled out of a multibillion-dollar gas deal, signaling to the world that Iran was simply too risky for long-term investment. Since then, the situation has only worsened, with Iran remaining on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist, limiting its ability to engage in international banking and financial exchanges.
Small investments, big problems
Salimi's mention of the $5 billion in foreign investment last year underscores another issue: the size and type of investments Iran is attracting. According to Salimi, 10-20% of this investment came from Iranians living abroad, while small Afghan investors accounted for less than 20%. More than half of the remaining investment came from companies outside these two groups, mostly in industries like food production, which require relatively small capital outlays.
Meanwhile, an energy expert, Morteza Behroozifar, warns that Iran’s oil industry alone needs $250 to $300 billion in investment to remain afloat. “We are currently experiencing shortages of gas, gasoline, and diesel," Behroozifar said in a recent interview with ISNA, adding that without massive foreign investment and a change in management, Iran’s energy sector is headed for collapse. The $5 billion that officials are highlighting is a fraction of what is required to stabilize and grow the economy.
The road ahead: Will Pezeshkian's government deliver?
President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the need for at least $100 billion in foreign investment to tackle the country’s growing problems. Yet, according to observers, attracting that kind of capital will require more than just rhetoric—it will demand systemic reform, transparency, and above all, the resolution of Iran’s energy crisis.
With a 14,000-megawatt electricity deficit, Pezeshkian’s cabinet will have to overhaul the country’s infrastructure while navigating the complex web of sanctions and international isolation that has crippled previous administrations.