After initially downplaying the significance of Trump’s election on Iran, Tehran’s state-controlled media has shifted focus, now emphasizing the importance of lifting US sanctions for the country’s well-being.
Immediately after Donald Trump’s election, Iranian officials and media sought to downplay its significance, while markets in Iran reacted negatively, anticipating a tougher US policy than under the Biden administration. However, this public stance now appears to be shifting.
The most notable call for efforts to lift sanctions came from former parliament speaker Ali Larijani in an interview with Khabar Online on Saturday. The seasoned Islamic Republic politician voiced serious concern over next year’s budget deficit, projected to exceed 30 percent and amounting to over $30 billion.
Larijani expressed dismay at the large budget deficit and emphasized that the only solution is a significant improvement in the economy. Although Iran always had deficits, but this year’s picture is worse than ever, he stressed. The only solution is to lift sanctions, he emphasized.
"These sanctions have become a barrier to our development. I’m not saying that removing them will solve everything, but it’s like a large stone has fallen into a stream. You need to remove that stone to allow the economy to flow smoothly. So, I believe we must make an effort to resolve this issue,” the former Speaker said.
So far, after six years of economic crisis, a year of conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxies, and Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained silent, giving no indication of whether he is open to major concessions. During Trump’s first term, he demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program, scale back missile development, and cease support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
The new president has yet to clarify his policy toward the Islamic Republic, but most observers agree he is likely to adopt a tough stance once again. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians, struggling with over 40% annual inflation, are increasingly eager for the government to show flexibility.
University professor Mehdi Motaharnia told a conservative website on Saturday that Donald Trump has returned to power stronger than ever, now supported by a Republican-majority Congress. While Trump emphasized his aversion to further conflicts during his campaign, Motaharnia noted that he is expected to take a tough stance on Iran.
"Regarding Iran, we will see an increase in tensions and sanctions. Trump will apply maximum pressure on Iran in an effort to push Tehran towards a new agreement. Trump believes in direct negotiations with Iran; he is even willing to personally engage with certain individuals in Iran,” Motaharnia argued. He added that while Trump is generally open to negotiations, the conditions he will set for Iran are likely to be stringent.
Mahmoud Jamsaz, a prominent academic and economist, emphasized that US political developments affect not only Iran but the entire world. Jamsaz, who has frequently spoken openly about the government’s misguided policies, argued that Iran is currently facing too many economic challenges to afford indifference to Trump’s election.
"In May 2018, when Mr. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the country’s inflation sharply increased and has continued to rise ever since. Such conditions have had severely damaging effects on Iran’s economy,” Jamsaz said.
Within Iran’s restricted space of public discourse, the economist tried his best to sound a warning. "Trump has said he doesn’t have much interest in dealing with Iran, stating only that he will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. This is where the issue depends on Iran’s policies. If Iran shows some flexibility and, for example, the JCPOA is somehow revived, we would see a positive economic impact. But if we move in a direction other than flexibility, conditions will naturally become more difficult."
