Iran's ex-President Mohammad Khatami warned Tehran may collapse or be toppled without urgent reforms, joining other Reformist figures who have sounded the alarm in recent days about popular anger over the ailing economy.
Their calls come as costs of living mount and the country faces huge external pressure in the form of military setbacks and renewed sanctions under Donald Trump.
Referring to a 15-point action plan for greater social and economic freedoms, Khatami warned on Thursday that “Iran is in a critical situation“.
Adopting the plan would ensure "the country does not fall into chaos and conflict, to prevent, in my view, an overthrow, while also avoiding self-overthrow," Khatami said.
The former president from 1997 to 2005, rarely comments so stridently on vital policy matters and is out of favor with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - the ultimate decider of foreign and domestic policy.
"If no action is taken to improve people’s lives and strengthen hope for change, we will all suffer,” he added.
Khatami and other Reformists have often been caught between the need for change and the constraints imposed by Iran’s conservative political structure.
Their history of seeking to improve the system only for the Islamic Republic to resort to harsher crackdowns and fail to deliver on promises has stoked criticism.
Khatami, who has long been a de facto leader for Iran’s Reformist camp, also called for a return to the ideals of the 1979 revolution, including republicanism, which he argued had been sidelined by the current political order.
“If we have deviated from this goal, what peaceful and fair measures can be taken to bring all—parties, factions, society, and governance—back to republicanism?” he said.
His remarks reflect an ongoing struggle within Iran’s political elite: how to balance the need for reform with the preservation of the Islamic Republic’s fundamental structure, which has been increasingly threatened by internal and external challenges.
Hassan Khomeini and the struggle for hope
Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, weighed in on the depressed mood in Iran, expressing concern about the erosion of popular hope.
“The enemies have targeted the people’s hope,” he said in a Thursday speech. “If they kill our hope, we are dead; every nation lives through hope.”
Khomeini has emerged as another figure in the Reformist camp, though he has carefully avoided directly criticizing Khamenei’s policies.
“Despair is the plague of human activity ... even in difficult situations, people of faith must not fall into despair,” Khomeini’s said.
The message has found some resonance, especially in the context of mounting public frustration.
Need for popular support
Azar Mansouri, another prominent Reformist and head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, also weighed in on the troubled state of the nation, urging national unity.
Speaking at the party’s 10th Congress, Mansouri called for prudence in the face of Iran’s increasing regional and international isolation, particularly with the second act for a Trump administration that has promised a renewed policy of maximum pressure.
“In the current situation, where regional problems for Iran have increased on one hand, and on the other, someone with a history of anti-Iranian policies and maximum pressure is sitting in the US presidency, it is crucial to understand these increasingly complex and challenging conditions,” Mansouri said.
“A strong and dignified presence on the international stage requires the government to have the solid backing of public satisfaction and support,” Mansouri added.
Her call contrasts with the reality of dwindling voter turnout and increasing disillusionment with the political system.
In the 2017, 2021, 2024 elections, voter turnout plummeted, with the 2024 presidential election seeing one of the lowest turnouts in the history of the Islamic Republic. The sense of disengagement from the electorate is palpable, and many Reformists like Mansouri have failed to confront the root causes of the apathy.
As Iran teeters on the edge of deeper political and economic turmoil, the reformists’ calls for change are framed within a difficult paradox: they are both critics and, detractors would argue, enablers of the system they now warn is endangered.
While figures like Khatami, Khomeini and Mansouri continue to push for reform, they are part of a system that has shown little interest in the transformation they advocate.
Reformists and their history of saving the system
While the Reformists are now sounding alarms about Iran’s future, they have historically played a key role in stabilizing the Islamic Republic amid crises.
Khatami’s own presidency was marked by a push for political freedoms and better relations with the West. However, the real turning point came in the post-2009 period, when the Reformists once again rallied behind the system to prevent it from falling.
In 2013, they threw their support behind Hassan Rouhani in the presidential election, hoping he would bring economic relief and mend ties abroad.
Yet after Rouhani’s election, Iran saw little of the promised change. The nuclear deal, which was heralded as a diplomatic breakthrough, quickly unraveled after Trump pulled out.
Under Rouhani, Iran also faced the worst economic crisis in decades, fueled by US sanctions. The Reformists, instead of challenging the system’s hardline approach, largely supported policies that allowed the establishment to remain in power.
This culminated in the suppression of multiple waves of protest, such as in November 2019, when hundreds were killed by security forces during demonstrations against rising fuel prices.
While the reformists may have temporarily stabilized the system in the past, they have also been a party to its failures.
Iran is currently grappling with an intense economic crisis, as the value of the US dollar has surged past 800,000 rials, exacerbating inflation and eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens.
The country is facing severe energy shortages, with power outages and gas supply cuts becoming more frequent, leading to the disruption of business and daily life.
Pollution levels are escalating, intensifying the already dire health challenges.
Meanwhile, skyrocketing prices for basic goods, including food and medicine, are placing immense pressure on households, pushing many to the brink of poverty.
