A prominent centrist political analyst has warned that Iran’s economic prospects under the 2015 nuclear deal are dwindling, urging Tehran to address sanctions as the government faces mounting pressure to revive talks with the West.
Mohammad Atrianfar, a journalist and Reformist politician, cautioned in a recent interview with Khabar Online that failing to lift sanctions could result in significant domestic political complications. "The current economic damage stems from the suspension of negotiations with the West since 2022," he said.
Khabar Online highlighted that lifting sanctions remains a key priority for the Pezeshkian administration, as officials recognize that improving living standards hinges on effective talks with Western powers.
Atrianfar highlighted internal resistance to negotiations, stating, "There is an undesirable reluctance in Iran toward talks, with hardliners questioning whether negotiators can protect Tehran's interests. Their argument is: 'If we are going to lose in negotiations, why participate at all?'"
Elaborating further, Atrianfar remarked, "Radical stances will constrain reasonable politicians, making effective governance difficult. However, radicalism is destined to fail if moderates are empowered to lead."
Fereshteh Saemi, a commentator for the website, observed that "the government appears to have shifted its approach" in light of the pressing need to address the economic crisis.
The remarks underscore growing calls for a return to diplomacy, with reformists and moderates pushing for a path forward amid the ongoing economic challenges.
Rassoul Salimi, a Khabar Online columnist, criticized Iran's hardliners for halting the nuclear talks led by then-Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Vienna. He noted that the negotiations were stopped at a critical moment when the West was reportedly ready to offer key concessions to Iran.
According to Salimi, hardliners hoped to extract even greater concessions, particularly from the United States, as Ebrahim Raisi was poised to win the June 2021 presidential election. He added that their goal was to sabotage outgoing President Hassan Rouhani’s chances of securing a deal and to position Raisi’s administration for a political win.
Under Raisi, the talks briefly resumed, led by chief negotiator Ali Bagheri, but stalled within a year, coinciding with the war in Ukraine and Iran’s formal support for Russia. During this period, Salimi observed, Tehran’s hardliners worked actively to ensure the negotiations would fail.
While Iranian officials and media anticipate a new round of negotiations after Donald Trump takes office in late January, some officials, including Kamal Kharrazi, secretary of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations—a body affiliated with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office—have outlined a cautious approach. Kharrazi stated, "Although Iran is prepared for negotiations, it has its own conditions for the talks," though he did not specify what those conditions entail.
In an interview with Al-Mayadin TV in Lebanon, Kharrazi said, "Iran will determine its next steps after it learns about the new US policy." He added, "Iran is equally prepared for negotiations or confronting Western pressures. Our response will be proportional to the West's behavior."
All this is happening while some politicians in Iran, including Former Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri have told the media that "There are hard days ahead of Iran" as Iran's economy is badly hit by US sanctions."
In mid-January, pro-reform website Fararu warned that "the trigger mechanism of the 2015 deal will be activated and all the sanctions imposed on Iran will be reactivated if Iran fails to reach an agreement with the United States over its nuclear program before August 2025."
