Analyst of Iranian politics based in the US
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has hinted at and cautioned about potential negotiations with the United States, maintaining his long-held strategy of calculated ambiguity.
In a speech in Tehran on Tuesday, Khamenei warned Iran’s officialdom of Washington’s hidden agendas without dismissing talks entirely.
This is characteristic of his rule. He opposes US policies while keeping the door open for engagement under certain conditions. The aim is clear: to manage internal factions and external pressures without committing to a clear course of action
But would this work with President Donald Trump and his expected ramping up of economic and political pressure?
Khamenei’s approach appears rooted in what his supporters call strategic patience. But it may be better framed as noncommittal interference.
By neither fully rejecting nor embracing negotiations, he hedges his bets, leaving room to say “I told you so,” regardless of the outcome.
This approach has more often than not allowed the Islamic Republic to navigate geopolitical pressures while preserving its core interests. Khamenei's hope is to deter aggressive US policies and mitigate domestic instability without making significant concessions.
Iran’s response to Trump’s hard line
The Trump administration is expected to revive the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, aiming to force Tehran to negotiate under terms favorable to Washington. This stands in contrast to Joe Biden’s more moderate policy of non-aggravation.
Trump has explicitly said that his primary goal is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, citing the country’s short breakout time.
There are signs, however, that he might adopt a softer tone to encourage dialogue. The absence of US reports on Iran’s human rights violations at a UN Human Rights Council meeting last week could be a case in point.
That said, it seems unlikely that Trump would abandon his core strategy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues, particularly by managing China’s demand for Iranian crude.
Anticipating what may lie ahead—already facing an ailing economy and regional setbacks— Iran’s ruling elite appears to have adopted a defensive strategy.
Tehran’s most recent military exercise focused on deterrence capabilities—a readiness to counter foreign threats, according to General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Seeing its regional influence undermined by last year’s events in Syria and Lebanon, the leadership in Tehran is now focused on preserving domestic stability and managing international relations without escalating conflicts.
The fact that the promised retaliation against Israel’s November attack, dubbed True Promise 3, has not materialized could indicate Tehran’s wish to avoid further escalation.
In his speech on Tuesday, Khamenei invoked a Quranic verse: “And do not weaken, and do not grieve, for you will surely be superior if you are believers.”
It was yet another attempt to raise spirit and resilience among supporters of his theocratic rule, framing perseverance as a religious and strategic necessity.
Negotiations and future prospects
Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian and senior members of his administration have signaled a willingness to negotiate with the Trump administration.
However, their conditions for talks appear unrealistic, reflecting internal disagreements and strategic calculations.
The dominant faction within the Islamic Republic publicly expresses reluctance to engage with Trump, citing distrust in Washington’s intentions and concerns over regional allies.
An implicit nod from the supreme leader, coated in notions of expediency or necessity, could override all such hesitations, of course, as demonstrated by the talks that led to Iran’s nuclear deal in 2015.
A defensive drill like the most recent Great Prophet 19 may be presented as a show of commitment to regional security. It may only aim to deter foreign aggression. But it inexorably leads to more tensions in the Middle East and more concern in the capitals of Arab countries around the Persian Gulf.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has a proven record of an ability to adapt under existential threats. In 2025, that adaptation may require Khamenei giving in to Trump’s demands—an overly optimistic proposition.
Khamenei’s strategy hinges on delaying negotiations, forming alliances, and enhancing domestic capabilities to withstand sanctions. The objective would be to get to a time and place where his representatives can negotiate with a better hand, accepting the risks of prolonged economic hardship and regional isolation.
Predicting the trajectory of Tehran-Washington relations is challenging given the secrecy and complexity of domestic and geopolitical dynamics.
Iran is not Trump’s top priority, as far as can be surmised from his first ten days in office. He has confirmed that he is seeking a deal.
But would he have the patience that Khamenei seeks?
